Market analysis of lubricating oil additives at home and abroad
1. Global lubricant market
In the 21st century, although the world lubricant supply and demand fluctuated, they basically maintained stable growth. According to incomplete statistics, from 2013 to 2018, the global lubricating oil consumption increased from 39.6 million tons to nearly 46.6 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 3.53%. In the demand for lubricating oil, vehicle oil accounts for 54% and industrial oil accounts for 46%. Marine oil is not included in the above statistics. At present, the global demand for marine lubricating oil is about 2.5 million tons / year, of which the demand for marine cylinder oil accounts for 50%, about 1.25 million tons / year, the demand for system oil accounts for 35%, about 875000 tons / year, and the demand for medium speed engine oil accounts for 15%, about 375000 tons / year. Among them, Asian shipping companies account for more than half of the global demand for ship lubricants.
According to the 2014 Research Report, the sales of the global lubricant market in 2013 was US $123.64 billion, and the sales revenue is expected to reach US $178.87 billion in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 5.4%. From 2014 to 2020, the shipment volume of the global lubricating oil market will maintain growth, reaching 49.1 million tons by 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2%.
The annual per capita lubricant consumption in the world is about 5kg, but the regional difference is very significant. North America consumed more than 18 kg in 2013. The per capita consumption in the Asia Pacific region is less than 4kg, and that in Africa is only 2kg. The per capita consumption in Western Europe is about 9 kg, that in Eastern Europe and the Middle East is nearly 8 kg, and that in Latin America is just over 5 kg. As the engine of global economic growth, the Asia Pacific region will continue to maintain its dominant market position, and its global market share will rise from 41% in 2011 to 48% in 2020.
2. China lubricating oil market
The total consumption of the world's 20 lubricant consuming countries accounts for 75% of the global lubricant demand. In 2017, the apparent consumption of lubricating oil in China was 6.739 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.89%. Affected by the macro economy, the growth slowed down in 2018, but it is still one of the world's lubricating oil consumers. However, the per capita consumption of lubricating oil after excluding marine oil is still less than 4kg, indicating that there is still great growth potential in the Chinese market.
It can be seen that China's lubricant consumption fluctuated greatly, mainly due to the economic stimulus caused by increased investment during 2009-2012: the surge in the number of industrial oils resulted in a significant increase in China's lubricant production and sales. In 2012, the lubricant consumption exceeded 8.5 million tons. However, the growth driven by investment is difficult to sustain. Since then, there has been a "new normal" in the economy, and the consumption of industrial lubricating oil has decreased greatly. At the same time, the rapid development of China's automobile industry, especially the passenger car market, has also changed the domestic lubricating oil product structure: the proportion of industrial oil has decreased, and the demand for vehicle lubricating oil (internal engine oil, gear oil, hydraulic oil, automatic transmission fluid, grease, etc.) is rising rapidly. By 2016, vehicle internal combustion engine oil has accounted for more than 51% of the total lubricating oil.
In 2016, China's annual automobile production and sales reached 28 million units respectively, achieving double-digit growth for three consecutive years, and continuing to become the global automobile market and the world's major lubricant consumer. China's demand for automobile lubricant maintains a high growth rate of more than 5% every year. It is expected that the internal combustion engine oil will exceed 5 million tons by 2021. The rapid growth of domestic demand for vehicle oil and the trend of high-grade vehicle oil will promote the vehicle lubricating oil industry to enter a period of rapid development.
Among lubricating oil producers and suppliers, the proportion of Sinopec and PetroChina has decreased year by year, from 44% in 2014 to 32% in 2018. The proportion of foreign brands has changed little, maintained at about 28%, and the proportion of private brands has increased rapidly, reaching 40%.